Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,246$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(480 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,197.2}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,197.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(16.4 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-05-31

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,862$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(8.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,157.2}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,157.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,920$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(380 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,888.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,888.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $442$ on 2020-05-31

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,997$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,667.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,667.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,415$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(5.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,347.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,347.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,075$ on 2020-05-31

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,790,172$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,776,398.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,776,398.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104,381$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,376.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(103,376.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,241,033$ on 2020-05-31

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $276,156$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,122.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(277,122.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38,571$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,259.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(37,259.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $236,395$ on 2020-05-31

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,542$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,460.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,395$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(458 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,338.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,338.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,176$ on 2020-05-31

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $183,410$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,852.6}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(174,852.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,540$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,299.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,299.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,518$ on 2020-05-31

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 97%
Andorra recovered 96%
Taiwan* recovered 96%
Austria recovered 95%
Croatia recovered 94%
Niger recovered 89%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Estonia recovered 87%
Japan recovered 87%
Germany recovered 87%
Cuba recovered 82%
Denmark recovered 81%
Israel recovered 80%
Malta recovered 79%
Lithuania recovered 65%
Italy recovered 61%
Turkey recovered 61%
Czechia recovered 56%
Georgia recovered 55%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 51%
Chad recovered 44%
San Marino recovered 43%
Serbia recovered 43%
Hungary recovered 41%
Romania recovered 39%
Jamaica recovered 37%
Singapore recovered 37%
Morocco recovered 35%
Saudi Arabia recovered 22%
Bulgaria recovered 14%
Algeria recovered 5%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,473$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(520 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,458.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,458.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(23.7 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(105.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-31

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,018$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,858.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,858.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(27.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(107.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-05-31

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $764$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(214 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{753.8}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(753.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(16.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19$ on 2020-05-31

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $442$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(128 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(435.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-31

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-31